Bitcoin stands at the core cost zone, will the next target be 96,700 USD?

Bitcoin has reached a key cost area this year, profit-taking remains light, and ETF funds are flowing back.

Written by: Glassnode

Translated by: AididiaoJP, Foresight News

Bitcoin has returned to the cost zone that suppressed the market earlier this year, with attention now on how far the rebound can go. Currently, profit-taking remains light, and ETF buying is on the rise; the next significant resistance level is around the mean MVRV price, approximately $96,700.

Key Points Overview

• In this bear market, Bitcoin has never closed below the realized price on the daily chart. The percentage of profitable positions dropped to levels comparable to those in November 2022, but NUPL has always remained positive.
• The price is currently positioned right above a significant block of long-term holders' coins in the $84,000–$85,000 range. The next major on-chain resistance is at the mean MVRV price, approximately $96,700.
• Options positions have rapidly piled up within a day: market makers' hedging may accelerate volatility in the spot market before $92,000 and slow down near $95,000.
• Even though almost all short-term holders have profited, the current level of profit-taking is still far less than during the peaks of 2024–2025.
• ETF buying has recovered, with spot trading volume more than doubling from the August low; this round of volume increase is driven by price rises and is spread across multiple exchanges.
• Altcoins are generally rising, but traders have hardly added new leverage.

Shallower Lows

Never fell below the realized price

Last week's report was still discussing the price falling below the true market mean. A few days later, the price has regained that level. Bitcoin is currently trading above the true market mean of $77,000 and also above the cost basis of short-term holders.

The realized price is the average buying cost of all Bitcoin in circulation. During the bear markets of 2018–2019 and 2022–2023, the price operated below the realized price for several consecutive months. In this current cycle, the price has never closed below it on a daily basis. The June low has always remained above the realized price—none of the previous bear market lows since 2017 have done this.

If the price holds above the true market mean, the June low will become the shallowest among these three bear markets.

Widely losses, but shallow depth

At the June low, the percentage of profitable supply dropped to a level roughly comparable to that of the November 2022 low, with the number of losing coins also close to that of the previous bear market.

However, the extent of the losses is much smaller. The net unrealized profit and loss (NUPL), measuring the overall market's paper profits and losses, has never turned negative in this cycle. Both 2018 and 2022 had deep dives into negative territory. Smaller losses generally mean lighter selling pressure.

Next Target Level

Support below, resistance above

In August, the market was still debating whether the rebound was just a short squeeze. Now that the price has crossed into the cost zone of the year, the question has shifted to how far it can go. Last week's report viewed the dense area of long-term holders' coins as resistance above, with a significant block of bullish options above it. Currently, the price has risen above both.

The largest block of long-term holder coins lies in the $84,000–$85,000 range, slightly below the current price. The next major resistance is at the mean MVRV price, approximately $96,700. This price equals the realized price multiplied by the long-term average MVRV for Bitcoin, corresponding to the average holders' profit returning to a long-term norm. The breakeven point for coins bought near the top of the range one or two years ago also falls roughly in this area.

On the downside, the true market mean of $77,000 serves as the main support. If it holds above $84,000, the path to $96,700 remains open; if it falls below $84,000 again, $77,000 will come back into view.

Options Positions Piling Up at the Top

Options data points to the same area. Within a day, market maker positions in Deribit options rapidly piled up near the top of the range. Positive gamma near the $95,000 strike price surged to the highest reading on the chart, while negative gamma accumulated between the spot prices of $92,000.

Gamma describes how market makers hedge options. Between spot prices of $92,000, the hedging behavior involves buying when prices rise and selling when prices fall, which may accelerate volatility; near $95,000, however, the opposite is true, with hedging tending to stabilize prices. This position is slightly below the mean MVRV price of $96,700, so if the rebound continues, the $95,000–$97,000 range will be the first key test.

Selling Pressure Remains Light

Profit-taking is not significant

Rapid upward movements are usually accompanied by considerable profit-taking. So far, this has not occurred in this round. The weekly net realized profit and loss during this rise has only been a small fraction of the levels seen at the tops of 2024 and 2025.

The current pace resembles the early phase of the previous bullish trend. From the end of 2023 to early 2024, profit-taking also maintained at a similar scale until larger selloffs occurred later. If this level continues, rebound space remains; if the weekly scale rises toward the peaks of 2024 and 2025, it would indicate that holders are beginning to sell off at highs.

Recent Buyers Realizing Profits

Short-term holders are the most likely to sell during a rebound, and nearly all have made profits. Their profitable supply percentage has crossed the "sell line," which is typically associated with rising selling pressure. This line has been crossed in early recoveries in 2019 and 2023, as well as near the peaks in 2021 and 2025; this signal alone is insufficient to determine the subsequent direction.

The overall market realized profits remain low, and the motivation to sell has not yet translated into large-scale sell-offs. A drop back below the sell line, while simultaneously seeing realized profits increase, would be the first signal that recent buyers are beginning to cash out.

ETF Funds Re-entering the Market

Inflow Recovers

In the five days following this squeeze, U.S. spot ETF net inflows amounted to approximately $1.3 billion, after two consecutive weeks of net outflows. The most recent trading day recorded the largest single-day inflow since early July.

Funds have increased purchases during the price rise. If inflows maintain this pace, ETF demand will continue to support the market.

Volume Rises with Buying

Spot trading volume across all exchanges has more than doubled since the August low, rising by 121% since the rebound started.

More important than scale is the context in which it occurs. From the end of 2025 to mid-2023, every surge in spot trading volume happened during downside phases: four consecutive spikes all occurred while prices were declining, indicating capitulation selling. August interrupted this sequence, becoming the first time in a year that volume increased alongside price rises.

Compared to its recent history, the recovery is still incomplete. The seven-day average is still about 30% lower than a year ago, indicating this is a recovery from the bottom, not a return to 2025 levels. Sustaining above the pre-rebound range would confirm that this is a more solid buying interest, rather than a squeeze lasting several weeks.

Exchange Landscape Continues to Reshape

Aside from the top platforms, the rankings of exchanges have changed. Over the past two years, Gate has risen by four positions, making it the most volatile exchange, and it currently ranks third in Bitcoin spot trading volume. Poloniex has risen by three positions, Bybit by one position, while four others have declined in the same period.

Gate's rise has not been a mere month of gains. Over the past 24 months, it has maintained a position in the top three for nine months, with its share of spot trading volume increasing from 2.0% two years ago to 9.1% now, a rise of 7.1 percentage points, the highest among all exchanges.

The top platforms, however, are an exception. Throughout these 24 months, Binance has ranked first every month, still accounting for about 31% of covered spot trading volume. Below it, there has been broad rotation, not a single challenger rising; in terms of share, it appears more dispersed: nine exchanges gained share while three lost share, with many concentrated in the middle to lower ranks rather than at the top. This indicates real competition emerging among exchanges, which also means that rebounding funds are entering multiple order books simultaneously rather than concentrating in a single venue, providing a broader and healthier foundation for the market.

Data is as of September 22, 2026, 12:00 UTC. Spot trading volume is a strictly settled daily series with hourly tails post-settlement; the coverage includes the set of exchanges covered by Glassnode.

Altcoins Rising, Leverage Not Synchronized

Little New Leverage

Altcoins have joined the rebound. In the past week, 72.5% of altcoins—a tracked range—outperformed Bitcoin. During the August squeeze, this ratio peaked at only 39%.

Traders have not significantly increased leverage. The perpetual contracts for altcoins, measured in BTC terms, have seen almost no growth in the past 30 days, with less than half of the market adding positions. In previous overheating phases like February 2021 and December 2024, the same metric surged significantly, with most markets increasing their positions.

This round of altcoin rises is primarily driven by spot buying, with a sudden occurrence of large-scale forced liquidations being less likely. A comprehensive rise in positions would signal that the market is starting to overheat.

Conclusion

Bitcoin has reached the true market mean, as well as the long-term holders' cost zone that suppressed prices for most of 2026. The June low has always remained above the realized price; if it holds above $77,000, this will be the shallowest bear market low since 2017. Profit-taking is light, ETF buying is on the rise, altcoins are increasing without adding new leverage. The next test lies between $95,000 and $97,000, where options positions intersect with the mean MVRV price. If it holds above $84,000, the upward path remains open; if it falls below $84,000 again and further loses $77,000, the sustainability of the rebound will be questioned.

Note: On-chain daily indicators, ETF fund flows, and options data are as of September 21, 2026, spot trading volume is as of September 22, and hourly prices are as of September 23; the most recent daily data may still be revised.