Nomura Securities: It is expected that the Federal Reserve will only cut interest rates twice next year, and then pause the rate cuts until March 2026

According to a report by JinShi, Nomura Securities no longer expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at its December policy meeting. This makes it the first global brokerage firm to hint at a Fed rate cut cycle after Trump won the election. Nomura Securities now expects that the Federal Reserve will only cut interest rates twice, each by 25 basis points, at its meetings in March and June 2025. The securities firm maintains its forecast for the Federal Reserve's federal funds rate until next year at 4.125% unchanged. Nomura Securities predicts that after a possible interest rate cut in June next year, the Federal Reserve will temporarily suspend interest rate cuts until March 2026. The benchmark overnight interest rate of the Federal Reserve is currently in the range of 4.50% -4.75%, and has been lowered by 75 basis points so far this year. Meanwhile, other global securities firms including Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan still expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points next month.