Macro outlook for next week: Christmas season may be full of crises, beware of liquidity shortage amplifying market volatility

This week, the Federal Reserve finally confirmed the long-awaited "turn" in the market, with the central bank's statements and updates to economic forecasts having a huge impact on the market. Market participants currently predict that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by about 40 basis points by December 2025, and the yield of US treasury bond bonds will rise accordingly. Earlier this week, Bitcoin fell from its historical high, and on Friday, it continued its downward trend in the European market, approaching $95000 at one point. Earlier, Bitcoin had just hit a new historical high of over $108000, and the current decline in the cryptocurrency market has had a greater impact on altcoins such as Ethereum and Dogecoin. In addition, US exchange traded funds (ETFs) that directly invest in Bitcoin also ended 15 consecutive days of inflows this week, setting a record of $680 million in outflows, highlighting the shift in market sentiment. Due to the arrival of Christmas, the market next week will be relatively calm, but there are still some influential data. However, due to thin liquidity, market volatility may become significant. The following are the key points that the market will focus on in the new week: Monday 23:00, Consumer Confidence Index of the December Conference Board in the United States; At 21:30 on Thursday, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending December 21st. For the US dollar, with the overall hawkishness within the Federal Reserve, it is expected that the dollar will not easily lose its throne this year, although the low trading volume during holidays may trigger some unnecessary fluctuations. Overall, if there is any market turbulence during the holiday season, it is more likely to hit the US stock market and US Treasury. The hawkish position of the Federal Reserve has not been welcomed by Wall Street. With the continuous rise in the yield of US treasury bond bonds, the selling may intensify.