Bitcoin’s price continues to fluctuate as analysts take note of institutional accumulation.Retail traders remain bearish as macroeconomic uncertainty weighs on risk assets.Fresh U.S. tariffs and Federal Reserve policy signals are adding to market turbulence, as analysts warn of potential liquidity constraints despite a weaker dollar.
The fourth quarter was a good one for crypto and Wall Street analysts expect leading U.S. exchange Coinbase (COIN) to have posted a big jump in earnings from the prior three months.See all newslettersRevenue for the fourth quarter is expected to have been $1.8 billion, according to FactSet, up from $1.26 billion in the third quarter. Earnings-per-share are estimated to have risen to $1.99 from $0.41.Maybe more importantly, thanks to the major rally across crypto following Donald Trump's presidential election victory, analysts expect exchange volume to have risen to $195.9 billion in the year's final three months from $185.3 billion in the third quarter. That $195.9 billion figure would be the strongest quarterly result since the fourth quarter of 2021.“We maintain our bullish thesis on COIN, seeing the company well positioned to benefit as crypto begins a potential transition into a new era,” analysts at Citi bank wrote in a note.The bank has a buy rating on the stock and this week increased its price target to $350 from $275. Shares on Tuesday are trading at $270, ahead nearly 90% from the year-ago level. The Citi team, however, does expect Coinbase to report fourth quarter revenue of $1.7 billion, missing the $1.8 billion consensus estimate.The November election was a “monumental catalyst for the crypto ecosystem," wrote JPMorgan’s Ken Worthington, who nevertheless remains neutral on the shares. He sees fourth quarter revenue at $1.77 billion, also a miss from the $1.8 billion estimate.While the final months of 2024 had many catalysts for crypto and thus Coinbase, 2025 is hard to predict as policy changes typically take some time to go into effect, say some Wall Street analysts.“For [2025], we assume static crypto prices and factor more normalized volumes resulting in 6% YoY transaction revenue growth vs. consensus of 3% growth,” Citi said.“Not unlike in the past, we expect the stock to remain as a 'risk-on' play throughout 2025 and will likely remain volatile around macro developments and swings in market sentiment," Citi continued. "That being said, we expect the next 1-2 years to be highly formative for Coinbase’s business model/competitive strategy, as well as for the greater digital asset space.”One of Coinbase’s main priorities over the past year has been to diversify its revenue stream, 50% of which still comes from trading fees. Retail traders, which pay the highest trading fee, still have not returned to the same levels seen in 2021, according to research firm Kaiko. The share of volume coming from that clientele shrank to just 18%, down from 40% in 2021, which continues to weigh on transaction revenue, Kaiko said.According to Citi, Coinbase could solve this issue in 2025 by leaning further into the tokenization of assets, embedded smart contract applications and Web3, the potential efficiencies in cross-border and remittance, as well as using the blockchain as an AI governance tool, among others.“In our view, the next evolution for Coinbase’s growth trajectory will rely on utility… an area with many proofs-of-concepts, but perhaps waiting to be unlocked with clearer rules,” the bank’s analysts wrote.
Odaily Planet Daily News: James Van Straten, senior analyst at CoinDesk, said that Goldman Sachs' disclosure of its holdings in a small number of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the 13F filing sparked community discussion, but these ETFs are almost certainly held by Goldman Sachs Asset Management, the bank's asset management department, for its clients, similar to many other banks and hedge funds, and are not net long positions. This is a strategy that reflects underlying trading, also known as cash and arbitrage trading, balancing the potential profits and risks of Bitcoin price fluctuations. ETFs have recently received option approval, so this is likely directional hedging. （Coindesk）
According to Foresight News, a government official confirmed to The Washington Post that US President Trump exchanged Russian prisoner Alexander Vinnik for the release of American teacher Marc Fogel. Vinnik was arrested in Greece in 2017 and extradited to the United States, accused of operating the digital currency exchange BTC-e and laundering money through the website. Marc Fogel returned to the United States on Tuesday evening after being imprisoned in Russia for three and a half years on marijuana charges.
According to BlockBeats, on February 12th, James Van Straten, a senior analyst at CoinDesk, stated that Goldman Sachs' disclosure of its holdings in a small amount of spot Bitcoin ETF in the 13F filing sparked a heated discussion on Twitter in the cryptocurrency industry, but the reality was not as expected. Firstly, these ETFs are not entirely bets on the price of Bitcoin (BTC) on the Goldman Sachs trading floor. These shares are almost certainly held by Goldman Sachs Asset Management, the asset management department of the bank, for its clients. Secondly, although the document (ownership snapshot as of December 31, 2024) shows that it holds $288 million in shares of the Fidelity Bitcoin ETF (FBTC) and $1.3 billion in shares of the BlackRock Bitcoin ETF (IBIT), it also shows put option positions with a nominal value exceeding $600 million (as well as a small number of call option positions). James said, "Goldman Sachs' position is similar to many other banks and hedge funds, and is not a net long position. It is a strategy that reflects underlying trading, also known as cash and arbitrage trading, balancing the potential profits and risks of Bitcoin price fluctuations. ETFs have recently received option approval, so this is likely directional hedging
According to Cryptonews, Swiss stock exchange group SIX has launched its digital collateral service, allowing financial institutions to use encrypted assets as collateral alongside traditional securities. According to the official press release, SIX operates one of the largest third-party agents in Europe, providing mortgage management solutions for financial institutions. With this new service, institutions no longer need to use a separate platform to manage encrypted collateral, reducing operational complexity and improving risk management. The system also ensures additional protection in case of default. It is worth noting that encrypted collateral will primarily be used for cryptocurrency related transactions, such as those conducted by exchange traded product (ETP) issuers, institutional traders, and cryptocurrency exchanges. Although the service supports the combination of bonds and Bitcoin as collateral for a single position, it cannot be used for SIX exchange repurchase transactions or as collateral for securities lending. On the contrary, it is designed to provide collateral solutions for OTC and bilateral cryptocurrency trading. Initially, the service will support Bitcoin, Ethereum, Avalanche, Cardano, Solana, Ripple, and USDC, and plans to expand asset selection based on customer needs.