According to a report by Golden Ten, former New York Fed Chairman and current Coinbase Global Advisory Board member Bill Dudley stated in a post that the current market seems to believe that slowing growth will be the dominant factor. Despite the sharp decline in the US stock market, market expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts continue to rise, suggesting that investors believe that price increases caused by tariffs will not constrain the Fed's actions. According to this logic, the Federal Reserve will consider rising inflation as a temporary phenomenon and support the economy through interest rate cuts. However, this narrative has significant loopholes in two aspects. Firstly, the impact of economic slowdown on labor market slack and downward pressure on wages may not be as expected. Secondly, if tariffs push up inflation expectations, the Federal Reserve will find it difficult to ignore the price pressure they trigger. The magnitude of this tariff increase will multiply, and worse, after years of failing to meet the target, this move may further delay the Federal Reserve's progress in achieving its 2% inflation target.
The triple blow of declining growth potential, rising prices, and rising inflation expectations is not a good omen for the market: slowing growth will suppress corporate profits and drag down the US stock market; The Federal Reserve's hesitation in cutting interest rates will impact the bond market; The increasing uncertainty puts pressure on both parties. Dudley predicts that this unfavorable outlook will be reflected in the economic forecast released by the Federal Reserve after next week's monetary policy meeting: lowering output growth expectations and raising inflation expectations, but with limited changes in the path of unemployment rate as employment growth slows down in sync with labor expansion. The median forecast for two 25 basis point interest rate cuts in 2025 may remain unchanged.
