10x Research published an article on X platform stating that as expected, the Federal Reserve has lowered its economic growth forecast and slightly slowed down the pace of balance sheet reduction (QT). Although this measure is not as dovish as the market hopes, it still leans towards dovish. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell reinforced this tone at the post meeting press conference, emphasizing that the recent rise in inflation may be temporary, while long-term inflation expectations remain stable. This indicates that the Federal Reserve may remain inactive in the coming months. The Federal Reserve has hinted at an increasing possibility of interest rate cuts by acknowledging weak economic growth while downplaying inflation concerns.
Our basic view is that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged until September, and the announced QT slowdown will provide some support. However, persistent risks may limit the potential for risky assets to rise after an initial rebound. Traders should distinguish between short-term tactical bullish layouts and more cautious medium-term prospects. As long as Bitcoin remains below the resistance zone of $90000-92000 (which is a major obstacle according to multiple indicators), the market may still be in a consolidation phase.
Large investors may maintain a wait-and-see attitude as Trump is expected to announce tariff policies on April 2nd and the US corporate earnings season begins around April 11th (with major banks releasing their earnings reports). There is little evidence to suggest that retail traders are re entering the market or seeing Powell's recent dovish remarks as a buying opportunity. Market structure indicators remain sluggish, indicating that this rebound is unlikely to gain significant momentum or bring Bitcoin back into a broader bullish sentiment.
