Regarding the different views on the approval of the $SOL spot ETF through time.
Recently, many friends have messaged me asking whether the SOL spot ETF will definitely be approved on October 9 or October 10. The main reason is that October 10 is the final approval date for Grayscale, the first applicant for the SOL spot ETF in the U.S. According to previous statements, it would either be approved or rejected.
However, due to the SEC's leniency now, approval is highly likely, so the last day is very likely to be the time of approval. This logic was correct before, but it is not the case now, as many friends overlook that this date is actually the time for the 19b-4 application. The 19b-4 is no longer being adopted by the SEC.
So, in reality, this date is no longer the deciding factor for whether the SOL spot ETF can be approved; the SEC's evaluation criteria have shifted from 19b-4 to S-1. Most institutions updated their S-1 documents on September 26, which means that the application for the SOL spot ETF could be approved at any time, rather than on a specific day.
In simpler terms, October 9 or October 10 is possible, but not certain. Not to mention that the U.S. government is currently in a state of shutdown, and the SEC is also affected by the shutdown. In past shutdown plans in 2018 and 2023, the SEC clearly stated that unless it involves urgent situations to protect existing investors' assets, most new applications, approvals, and comment work would be halted.
No one knows how long this shutdown will last; it could resume tomorrow or take two to three weeks. During this time, the SEC will not approve anything, so how could it be certain to be approved?
Therefore, I want to express that this date is possible, but not guaranteed.
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