On November 18th at noon, the Mt. Gox cold wallet, which had been silent for 8 months, suddenly made a big move: it transferred out over 10,000 bitcoins (worth approximately $950 million) in one go.
The market instantly exploded:
"Is it going to crash again?"
"Is it going to drop further?"
"Is this preparation for repayment?"
Don't worry, let's take a look at what impacts this event might bring.
1. What happened?
The fund flow can be divided into two parts:
Large amount (10,422 BTC): Transferred to a brand new, unmarked address (starting with “1ANkD…ojwyt”), valued at approximately $936–950 million.
Small amount (185–186 BTC): Flowing back to Mt. Gox's own Hot Wallet, valued at approximately $16–17 million.
Although there has been no official statement, on-chain behavior and historical patterns point to one possibility: preparation for the next batch of creditors' repayments.
The timing is very delicate because:
The repayment deadline has been postponed three times, with the latest deadline being October 31, 2025.
There are still 34,000–90,000 BTC of repayment tasks that remain unfinished.
📊 After the transfer, the Bitcoin balance held by Mt. Gox's trustee: approximately 34,689 BTC (about $3.1 billion).
View path: AiCoin Index - MtGox BTC Holdings
2. How did the market react?
BTC price reaction: drop then panic
Before the event: BTC had already fallen below $90,000.
After the event was announced: Today's decline expanded to about -5.3%, with panic sentiment erupting, and the fear and greed index briefly dropped to 15 (extreme fear).
However, analysts pointed out:
This transfer did not flow into exchanges, it is not a sale! The main decline comes from overall market sentiment, rather than being triggered by the Mt. Gox single event.
(Compared to transfers in early 2024 and 2025)
3. Key observation points
✅ Positive signals
185 BTC flowing back to the hot wallet: Indicates that the trustee is still managing allocations, rather than directly liquidating.
Past experience: After the Mt. Gox incident triggered panic, BTC has rebounded multiple times.
⚠️ Pay attention to the following three key signals
Actual selling pressure: If there are "transfers to exchanges" (e.g., Binance, Coinbase) in the coming days, it may indicate actual selling pressure is coming.
Ongoing on-chain anomalies: Whether the “Mt. Gox Trustee” labeled wallet continues to show large anomalies; ongoing anomalies mean the manager is accelerating operations.
Official announcements: Currently, all judgments are based on on-chain inferences; whether the official releases a new round of repayment progress announcements.
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