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On September 25th, the cryptocurrency market presented a scene of both ice and fire. Bitcoin rose slightly by 0.31% and remained around $112000. However, Ethereum fell by 1.86% and briefly fell below the critical psychological level of $4100.
Why is there such a significant differentiation between the two core assets in the same market environment? This is not only a result of the shift in capital flow, but also reveals the unique pressures faced by different cryptocurrency sectors.
Today, various sectors in the cryptocurrency market experienced a general decline, but there were significant structural changes in the flow of funds. The DeFi sector fell 1.02%, the Meme sector fell 1.17%, and the Layer2 sector fell even more, reaching 2.87%.
In this general decline, the PayFi sector rose 1.61% against the trend, becoming a little red among the green clouds. XRP rose 2.14% within the sector, while Ultima rose 6.55%.
Market funds are withdrawing from high-risk sectors and shifting towards relatively stable Bitcoin and specific payment financial assets. This differentiation reflects the cautious mentality and preference of investors in the current market environment.
【 02 Reasons Behind: The Unique Pressure of Ethereum 】
The uniqueness of Ethereum determines that it faces different market pressures than Bitcoin.
The sharp decline in trading volume is one of the key factors. Data shows that Ethereum's trading volume in September decreased by 85% compared to August, indicating weak market demand. A large amount of ETH has been transferred to the exchange, indicating potential selling pressure.
On a technical level, the Ethereum moving average system shows a bearish trend, with prices consistently running below the moving average, and momentum indicators indicating a possible strengthening of the downward trend.
At the same time, although the Ethereum network has undergone significant upgrades, such as the Dencun upgrade which significantly reduced gas costs, these technological improvements have not effectively translated into short-term price support.
Macro Environment: The Impact of Federal Reserve Policies
The macro environment also has a significant impact on the market. The Federal Reserve recently cut interest rates by 25 basis points, which is in line with market expectations.
However, this positive trend seems to have been pre digested by the market, and there has been no significant increase in cryptocurrency assets. There is even a risk of a pullback of 'all the good news'.
It is worth noting that the open interest contracts in the Bitcoin futures market quickly climbed after the FOMC meeting, but trading in the spot market remained light. This divergence indicates that the current price changes are mainly driven by the derivatives market and lack real capital inflows to support them.
【 04 Future Outlook: Key Positions and Potential Trends 】
For the future, analysts point out that Bitcoin needs to closely monitor key positions. $113000-113300 is an important resistance range, and if it can be broken through, it may test $115000.
In terms of Ethereum, the support level of $4500 is particularly crucial, and if it falls, it may trigger deeper corrections.
The upcoming Fusaka hard fork and clear regulatory framework in December may serve as a catalyst for Ethereum's recovery. However, before that, the market may need to go through a period of volatility.
In the coming week, investors will closely monitor whether Bitcoin can break through the resistance level of $113300 and whether Ethereum can regain its position above the support level of $4150. The market always oscillates between fear and greed, and this time, funds clearly prefer Bitcoin's "digital gold" narrative over Ethereum's "digital ecosystem" vision.
As the Fushaka hard fork approaches in December, Ethereum is expected to receive a technical boost, but in the short term, the repair of market sentiment requires more substantial buying support.
Operation suggestion:
BTC 111650 long first target watch 112850 second target watch 113765;
ETH 4015 long, first target at 4080, second target at 4145.
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Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's personal opinion and is intended to assist investors in understanding information related to the capital market. It does not constitute any investment advice and does not represent the position or viewpoint of AiCoin. The market is risky and investments should be made with caution.