Though acknowledging growing weakness in the labor market, Powell said a December rate cut is not a "foregone conclusion."

[Powell Says Federal Reserve Interest Rates Are Now in Neutral Range] On October 30, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that the Federal Reserve's interest rates are now within the range of many neutral rate estimates. Some committee members believe action should be paused, while others support continuing rate cuts. Powell pointed out that the labor market is generally a better indicator than spending, but appears more pessimistic under current circumstances. An increasing number of members believe the Federal Reserve may need to wait for a cycle before taking further action.

[Federal Reserve Chairman Powell: Missing Economic Data May Lead to Pausing Rate Adjustments] On October 30, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that missing economic data could be a reason to pause rate adjustments. In the absence of sufficient data, the Federal Reserve may need to adopt a more cautious approach. He noted that a government shutdown could impact the December meeting.

[Federal Reserve Chairman Powell: Difficult to Gain Detailed Understanding of Economy During Government Shutdown] Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that during a government shutdown, the Fed finds it challenging to gain a very detailed understanding of the economy. Currently, the Fed is using PriceStats and Adobe data to assist in monitoring inflation, but Powell emphasized that private sector data cannot replace government statistics.

[Federal Reserve Chairman Powell Says Inflation Rate Near Target After Removing Tariffs] Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that the inflation rate, after removing tariffs, is not far from the 2% target.