Click on the link to enter the meeting: https://meeting.tencent.com/p/9309732027 With the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates soaring to over 97%, Bitcoin once again stands at the $110000 mark, and the global cryptocurrency market is holding its breath for a possible decision at this week's FOMC meeting. On October 28-29, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve will hold its FOMC meeting, and the market generally expects the meeting to announce a new round of interest rate cuts. This expectation has pushed the price of Bitcoin to above $111000, with a weekly increase of over 5%. According to the latest data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates at its next meeting has reached 98.3%, which will be the third time since 2025. Previously, the Federal Reserve had hinted that it would consider cutting interest rates later in 2025. Expectations of interest rate cuts are heating up: the market has started pricing The September CPI data in the United States shows that the inflation rate has dropped to 3%, which is lower than market expectations and provides policy space for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool shows that the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates at its October meeting has skyrocketed to 98.3%. This probability quickly increased from around 70% to over 97% after the release of CPI data, indicating that the market has widely expected the Federal Reserve to initiate a new round of interest rate cuts. Not only in October, the market also expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates again in December. In fact, some economists have warned that a rapid Federal Reserve rate cut could significantly boost Bitcoin and altcoins, with at least two more rate cuts expected this year. This expectation has triggered a coordinated reaction in traditional financial markets, with Nasdaq futures rising 0.83% and S&P 500 futures rising 0.57%, indicating an overall rebound in market risk appetite. Recent Performance of Bitcoin: Strong Rise and Key Resistance Levels Driven by expectations of interest rate cuts, the price of Bitcoin has surpassed the $111500 mark, with a 5% increase in the past week. This price performance demonstrates Bitcoin's high sensitivity to monetary policy expectations. Technical indicators show a strong bullish trend for Bitcoin. The relative strength index is at 60, in the neutral zone, while the MACD line is above the signal line, showing a bullish trend. Market analysts are closely monitoring the key resistance level of $112000, and if this level is successfully breached, it may initiate a new upward trend towards $113000 or even higher. On the downside side, Bitcoin has formed strong support in the $108000-110000 range, providing buffer space for a possible pullback. Transmission mechanism: How interest rate cuts affect Bitcoin prices The impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut on Bitcoin has been realized through various channels. Firstly, interest rate cuts typically lead to a weakening of the US dollar. The US dollar index has fallen 0.5% to 104.20 after expectations of interest rate cuts intensified, which has increased the attractiveness of Bitcoin as a hedge against fiat currency depreciation. Secondly, a low interest rate environment will drive investors to seek higher yielding assets. As bond and other income based investment yields decline, investors may shift their funds towards alternative assets such as Bitcoin. Cutting interest rates will also lower borrowing costs and inject more liquidity into the financial market. Some of this additional liquidity will flow into high-risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Institutional fund flow: ETFs become an important channel Bitcoin ETFs have become an important channel for traditional funds to enter the cryptocurrency market. In October 2025 alone, Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net inflow of $4.21 billion. These fund inflows directly pushed the price of Bitcoin up from $103587 to $111383, demonstrating the active allocation of institutional investors during the period of monetary policy changes. Historical data shows that encrypted ETP continues to attract capital inflows during the Federal Reserve's easing cycle. Since the interest rate cut in September 2025, encrypted ETP has recorded an inflow of $9.4 billion. Institutional fund flows have also shifted towards the cryptocurrency market, with Grayscale Bitcoin Trust recording a net inflow of $18 million on May 22. This indicates that Bitcoin is transitioning from an edge speculative asset to a mature investment portfolio component. Historical pattern: Bitcoin performance during interest rate cut cycles Looking back at past interest rate cut cycles, Bitcoin has achieved double-digit percentage gains within a few weeks, providing a basis for current market expectations. On chain data also supports bullish sentiment. According to Glassnode data, wallet addresses holding over 0.1 BTC increased by 12% after expectations of interest rate cuts intensified, indicating that investors are accumulating positions. The correlation between Bitcoin and technology stocks is particularly evident during loose cycles. The cryptocurrency market often mirrors the trend of technology stocks, which is consistent with the current performance of Nasdaq rising 1.3% to 18900 points. However, history also reminds us that the performance of Bitcoin is not solely determined by interest rates. In March 2020, despite significant interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, Bitcoin experienced a significant decline due to broader economic uncertainty. The Federal Reserve's decision this week is not just an interest rate adjustment, but also a repricing of global risk assets. Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's personal opinion and is intended to assist investors in understanding information related to the capital market. It does not constitute any investment advice and does not represent the position or viewpoint of AiCoin. The market is risky and investments should be made with caution.

Binance SOL/USDT is currently trading at $200.01, with a 5-minute increase of 0.21%. Please pay attention to market fluctuations.

[Federal Reserve Chair Powell's Press Conference May Bring Hawkish Surprise] Federal Reserve Chair Powell's press conference is drawing significant market attention. In the absence of government data, Powell is expected to maintain the status quo and provide limited information in terms of forward guidance. What may surprise the market is Powell expressing uncertainty about a rate cut in December, which could be interpreted as a hawkish signal. Currently, the market is confident about a December rate cut, but if a hawkish surprise occurs, U.S. stocks may decline, U.S. Treasury yields may rise, the dollar may strengthen, and precious metal prices may fall. If Powell's stance remains unchanged, the market will fluctuate based on trade developments.

[Telegram Plans to Launch Confidential Compute Open Network Cocoon in November] Telegram founder Pavel Durov stated at Blockchain Life 2025 in Dubai that Telegram plans to launch Cocoon (Confidential Compute Open Network) in November.

[Federal Reserve Policy Statement May Adjust Wording and Target Range] The Federal Reserve may adjust the wording in its policy statement, acknowledging the rebound in economic activity and removing references to inflation 'rising,' while maintaining other descriptions of inflation and employment. The statement may mention the uncertainty caused by the lack of data due to the government shutdown. Additionally, the Fed may modify the target range to reflect the rate cut decision and signal the end of quantitative tightening in this or the next meeting. Federal Reserve Governor Milan may oppose a 25 basis point rate cut and support a 50 basis point rate cut; Kansas City Fed President Schmidt may oppose the rate cut and advocate for keeping rates unchanged. These adjustments are already within market expectations.