[Fed Minutes Show Hawkish Majority, Year-End Rate Cut Probability Decreases] The latest Federal Reserve policy meeting minutes reveal that several officials expressed concerns about labor market weakness but believed it might be appropriate to keep rates stable this year. RSM Chief Economist Joseph Brusuelas interpreted the minutes as highlighting the hawk-dove divide, with hawks presenting strong arguments around the risks of entrenched inflation. The U.S. Department of Labor announced a delay in releasing part of the October employment data until December 16, by which time the Fed's final meeting of the year will have concluded. Brusuelas believes the data delay only partially clears the fog surrounding the Fed's decision-making and expects no rate cuts.

[Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes Show December Rate Decision Hard to Predict] On November 20, Wall Street Journal reporter Nick Timiraos posted on social media that the Federal Reserve meeting minutes confirmed the gradually forming market consensus that a slight majority of officials may currently lean toward keeping rates unchanged in December. He noted that the opinions of 'many' officials carry more weight than 'several,' making the outcome of the December rate meeting difficult to predict.

[Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes: Divergence Between Slowing Job Growth and Moderate Economic Growth] The Federal Reserve's October meeting minutes reveal that participants discussed the difficulty in assessment due to the absence of the September employment report, relying instead on private sector data, limited government data, and business survey information. Current indicators show that layoffs and hiring remain at low levels, with the labor market gradually cooling between September and October without a sharp deterioration. Participants believe that the slowdown in job growth is primarily due to reduced labor supply and moderate economic growth, as well as weakened demand caused by uncertainty. Some noted that investments related to artificial intelligence might exacerbate weak labor demand. Looking ahead, labor market conditions are expected to cool gradually, with businesses inclined to maintain their current workforce levels. Some participants suggested that the divergence between weak employment and moderate GDP growth might persist due to productivity improvements and continued constraints on labor supply.

European Central Bank officials are concerned that the rapid growth of US dollar stablecoins may weaken euro policies, and some European issuers believe that a strong ecosystem of euro stablecoins should be established, rather than relying solely on digital euros. （Cointelegraph）

[Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes Suggest Halting Balance Sheet Reduction] Federal Reserve meeting minutes indicate that the SOMA manager has recommended the Fed to halt balance sheet reduction as soon as possible. Excessive volatility in the repo market could impact the Fed's rate control and the Treasury market.