[QCP: Crypto Market Liquidity Weakens During Christmas Week, Maintains Range-Bound Movement]
On December 23, QCP released a market observation stating that as the Christmas holiday approaches, crypto market liquidity has significantly declined. Gold prices have reached an all-time high, but Bitcoin remains range-bound. Data shows that open interest in BTC perpetual contracts on major exchanges has decreased by approximately $3 billion, while open interest in ETH perpetual contracts has dropped by around $2 billion, indicating active market deleveraging.
During Christmas week, Bitcoin typically fluctuates by 5%-7%, which is related to the concentration of year-end options expirations. This Friday, approximately 300,000 BTC options contracts (worth around $23.7 billion) and 446,000 IBIT options contracts will expire. Among them, over 50% of Deribit’s open interest is set to expire on Boxing Day, with the maximum pain point near $95,000.
Recent data shows a decline in open interest for $85,000 BTC put options, while positions for $100,000 BTC call options remain stable, indicating limited market optimism for a Christmas rally. Risk reversal indicators suggest sentiment has softened compared to the past 30 days but remains overall bearish. Analysts believe that year-end tax-loss harvesting may amplify short-term volatility, and the crypto market may continue to oscillate in the short term, with holiday trading potentially reverting to the mean after liquidity returns in January.