[Polymarket Predicts 92% Probability of Fed Keeping Rates Unchanged in January] According to Polymarket data, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged at the January 2026 meeting is approximately 92%, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is about 8%, the probability of a 50 basis point or greater rate cut is around 1%, and the expectation of a rate hike is less than 1%. The total trading volume of related contracts is close to $180 million.