[Guotai Haitong: Probability of Fed Rate Cut in January Only 5%] Guotai Haitong's research report pointed out that the U.S. labor market in December continued its state of low hiring and low layoffs, with the unemployment rate unexpectedly falling to 4.4% and the growth in new jobs showing a slowing trend, which may be revised downward in subsequent annual adjustments. Since the unemployment rate has not risen further and the risk of a labor market stall is relatively low, the Federal Reserve may have room to pause rate cuts. According to CME data, after the release of non-farm payroll data, the market expects the probability of a rate cut in January to be only 5%. The market expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates twice in 2026, with the timing postponed to June and September. Future rate cut expectations may depend on the appointment and statements of the new Federal Reserve Chair.