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1、 Ethereum (ETH) intraday trend analysis
1. Price positioning and key levels
Current price: $4132 (down over 3% for the day)
Key range: $4000-4200 (intraday oscillation core area)
Support/Resistance:
Key support: $3800 (institutional bottom fishing key level), $3580-3630 (deep support range)
Key resistance: $4200 (intraday long short watershed), $4300 (technical rebound target level)
Technical form: The daily chart shows that the price falls below $4000, forming a "bearish swallowing" pattern, but the extremely reduced trading volume suggests that selling pressure may be nearing its end
2. Interpretation of Technical Signals
MACD indicator: 2-hour cycle momentum weakens, daily bullish momentum still exists but shows signs of weakening
RSI indicator: located around 45, close to oversold area, suggesting a possible short-term rebound
On chain data: The number of giant whale wallets holding 10000 ETH or more is growing at the fastest rate since early 2021, indicating that institutions are accelerating hoarding above $4000
Capital flow: The inflow of funds into Ethereum ETFs has slowed down, but the proportion of institutional holdings remains above 55%, providing bottom support
3. Operational suggestions
Long position opportunity: If the price stays at the support level of $3800, you can place long positions with a target of $4000-4100
Short position opportunity: If the intraday rebound is hindered by $4200, it can be shorted to $3900
Risk Warning: Beware that if the support level falls below $3580, it may trigger a chain sell-off, and explore the risk of $2600
2、 Bitcoin (BTC) intraday trend analysis
1. Price positioning and key levels
Current price: $111900 (down over 2% for the day)
Key range: $111000-114000 (recent volatile range)
Support/Resistance:
Support level: $110000 (key psychological threshold), $108000 (historical W-bottom form support)
Resistance level: $114000 (intraday rebound target), $116500 (former high pressure level)
Technical form: The price rebounded slightly after testing the support level of $110000, but failed to effectively break through the resistance of $114000
2. Interpretation of Technical Signals
MACD indicator: The daily chart shows a bearish signal, but the weakened momentum of the 2-hour cycle suggests a possible short-term rebound
RSI indicator: located around 48, close to oversold area, indicating a neutral to cautious market sentiment
Market sentiment: The Fear and Greed Index is in the range of 45-50, reflecting that the market is in a cautious wait-and-see state
Capital flow: The inflow of funds into Bitcoin ETFs has slowed down, but the proportion of institutional holdings has risen to 62%, providing strong support for the price
3. Operational suggestions
Long position opportunity: If the price stabilizes at $111000 and the volume breaks through $114000, you can place multiple orders with a target of $116000
Short position opportunity: If it falls below the support of $110000, it can be shorted to $108000
Risk Warning: Pay attention to the progress of the US government shutdown (October 14th is the 14th day of the shutdown), which may trigger market volatility
3、 Summary and Operational Strategy
ETH trend judgment: volatile and bearish, with the current price falling below the key psychological level of $4000. If it holds the support of $3800, it is expected to rebound to $4200; If lost, it may drop to $3580
BTC trend assessment: volatile consolidation, intense long short competition around $111900, focus on gains and losses at the $110000 support level, breaking through $114000 will open up rebound space
Position management: Control the risk of intraday trading orders within 0.5% -1%, and prioritize selecting limit orders to avoid slippage risk
Long term outlook: If the market can maintain key support levels, there is a possibility of an "Uptober" rebound in the fourth quarter, with Bitcoin targeting $130000-150000 and Ethereum targeting $5000-6000
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Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's personal opinion and is intended to assist investors in understanding information related to the capital market. It does not constitute any investment advice and does not represent the position or viewpoint of AiCoin. The market is risky and investments should be made with caution.