[Paul Krugman: November Nonfarm Payroll Data Indicates U.S. Economy Is in Early Recession Stage] Nobel laureate Paul Krugman published an analysis stating that the U.S. November nonfarm payroll report, released on December 16, indicates that the U.S. economy is in the early stages of a recession. Paul Krugman pointed out that the overall unemployment rate in November was 4.6%, higher than the 2024 average of 4%, and close to triggering the 'Sahm Rule.' If interpolating October data based on the September unemployment rate of 4.4% and November's 4.6%, the three-month unemployment rate trend closely aligns with the recession signal predicted by the Sahm Rule.