AiCoin Daily (January 11th)

According to the heat ranking, ZEC's popularity has decreased by 120000 followers compared to yesterday, ranking first. The heat ranking is as follows: ① ZEC （$378.98，0.34%） ② RIVER （$15.64，19.12%） ③ PEPE （$0.000005999，0.60%） ④ ETH （$3105.07，0.46%） ⑤ BREV The purchasing power of ZEC's main funds is weak, with a net inflow of $612.68 million in 24 hours and a transaction volume of $1.737 billion in 24 hours, of which the net inflow of the main funds is $464700.

[Hong Kong Financial Secretary Paul Chan Announces New Budget to Be Released on February 25] Hong Kong Financial Secretary Paul Chan disclosed in his published blog that the new annual Budget for Hong Kong will be released on February 25. He stated that, benefiting from the active financial market, including increased revenue from stamp duty, the overall income has risen, allowing the operating account of the Special Administrative Region (SAR) government to return to surplus ahead of schedule. However, due to increased government investment in public works projects, the capital account for this fiscal year will still record a deficit. Additionally, in response to suggestions about introducing a gold-pegged stablecoin, Paul Chan pointed out that the development of stablecoins needs to proceed step by step. In the future, after completing preliminary work, the possibility of pegging to gold or other assets will be considered, emphasizing the need to handle related matters prudently.

[Low Probability of Fed Rate Cut in January, Market Expects Rate Cuts Delayed to Mid-Year] The research report by Guotai Haitong pointed out that in December, the U.S. labor market showed a state of low hiring and low layoffs, with the unemployment rate unexpectedly falling to 4.4%, interrupting the previous upward trend. However, the growth in new jobs continued to slow, and subsequent annual revisions may lower the figures. Since the unemployment rate has not risen further and the risk of a labor market stall remains low, the Federal Reserve still has room to pause rate cuts after three consecutive rate cuts. According to CME data, following the release of non-farm payroll data, the market estimates only a 5% probability of a rate cut in January. For 2026, the market expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates twice, with the timing delayed to June and September. Attention will also focus on the appointment and statements of the new Federal Reserve Chair.

[Probability of Trump Being Impeached Again During 2025-2029 Term Rises to 57%] On January 11, according to information from the Kalshi platform, the probability of Trump being impeached again during the 2025-2029 term has risen to 57%, a record high. Trump previously stated that if the Democrats achieve a major victory in the 2026 midterm elections, he might face a new round of impeachment attempts.

[Zheng Houcheng of Yingda Securities Predicts Steady Appreciation of the RMB Exchange Rate by 2026] The 2026 Annual Conference of the China Chief Economist Forum was held in Shanghai from January 10 to 11, with the theme 'Midgame Strategy: Building a Strong Nation by Carrying Forward and Innovating.' Zheng Houcheng, Chief Economist of Yingda Securities, stated at the conference that the RMB exchange rate is highly likely to appreciate steadily by 2026, potentially entering a phase of rapid appreciation. He also predicted that the appreciation process might continue into 2027, with the RMB exchange rate potentially reaching a peak in the range of 6.2 to 6.3.