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On September 18th, Ethereum (ETH) experienced a thrilling roller coaster ride: before and after the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut decision, the price plummeted to $4398, and then rebounded strongly to above $4600, with a intraday amplitude of over 10%. This intense volatility makes investors ask: Is ETH's next step towards the abyss or towards the stars?
Key Points of Long Short Battle
Currently, ETH is at a crossroads in terms of technical choices.
- Upper resistance: If it breaks through $4680 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level), it may open a channel to $4750 or even $4880.
- Bottom support: If it falls below $4535, it may explore the edge of the abyss of $4420 or even $4350.
Although the hourly MACD shows more short-term momentum, the daily MACD death cross continues, and the bearish trend has not been completely resolved.
Star: Institutions are bullish at $6400
Citigroup has presented an extreme bullish scenario in its latest report: if institutional funds continue to pour in and ETF approvals drive liquidity, ETH may hit $6400 by the end of the year.
The supporting logic includes:
Ethereum remains the dominant platform for DeFi, NFT, and tokenization;
The macro environment is favorable (the interest rate cut cycle has begun, and the attractiveness of risk assets has increased).
Abyss: Bear Market Warning $2200
The same report also warns of bear market risks: if global liquidity tightens or the market enters a deep correction, ETH may fall to $2200. Recent on chain data shows:
The growth of second layer network activities has not been fully transmitted to the capture of value in the main network;
The pressure of profit taking combined with macroeconomic uncertainty has become a potential catalyst for short positions.
Where do investors go from here
The current market presents a typical "all positive" feature: although interest rate cuts have been implemented, prices have not been able to continue to break through and have instead fallen into volatility. Analyst's suggestion:
- Short term: Focus on breaking through the $4535-4680 range, take light positions and strictly cut losses;
- Medium to long term: closely monitor the flow of institutional funds (such as ETF net inflow data) and the progress of Ethereum ecosystem upgrade.
The cryptocurrency market has never lacked drama, but only reason and discipline can cross the cycle of stars and abyss.
Operation suggestion:
BTC 117450 long, first target watch 118565, second target watch 119300;
ETH 4600 long, first target is 4655, second target is 4710.
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Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's personal opinion and is intended to assist investors in understanding information related to the capital market. It does not constitute any investment advice and does not represent the position or viewpoint of AiCoin. The market is risky and investments should be made with caution.
