The Fed's Rate Cut May Help U.S. Stocks Overcome September's Seasonal Weakness
Wall Street has long regarded September as the worst-performing month for U.S. stocks, a view supported by decades of data. However, analysts suggest that expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut this month could break this "curse." According to Welnhofer data, since 1971, the S&P 500 Index has averaged a 1% decline in September. However, when the Fed cuts rates in a non-recessionary environment, the index has averaged a 1.2% gain in September. Last year, the Fed cut rates by 50 basis points, and the S&P 500 Index rose 2% that month, serving as a classic example of breaking September's seasonal weakness. Analysts point out that if the Fed continues to cut rates at this month's meeting, it could boost market sentiment and improve stock market performance.