[QCP Capital: Market Shifts from Panic to Adjustment, Fed Rate Cuts May Be Limited]
QCP Capital analyzed that market sentiment has shifted from panic to recalibration. The Federal Reserve's recent 25-basis-point insurance rate cut has reopened the door to easing, but Powell framed it as risk management rather than the start of a deep easing cycle. Since economic activity remains robust and core inflation is near 3%, future rate cuts may remain shallow unless there is a significant downturn in economic growth.
Long-term yields have risen due to term premiums and supply pressures, the stock market has hit new highs, and gold retreated after briefly surpassing $3,700. The dollar rebounded alongside U.S. Treasuries, indicating that one-sided shorting of the dollar is no longer risk-free.
The analysis suggests that the Fed's policy may still lean tight, with room for adjustment compared to a lower neutral rate, which could lower the threshold for further easing. However, consumer resilience and the slow dynamics of hiring and layoffs in the labor market allow the Fed to act cautiously. Additionally, Europe and Japan no longer significantly outperform the U.S., the dollar may have bottomed out, while gold and Bitcoin reflect market skepticism about the return of aggressive hawkish policies.