[Goldman Sachs Expects Bank of Japan to Raise Interest Rates in January 2026, December Rate Hike Risk Remains]
The Goldman Sachs Economic Research team maintained its baseline forecast in the latest report, suggesting that the Bank of Japan may initiate an interest rate hike in January 2026, while warning that the risk of a rate hike in December 2025 still exists. The report noted that uncertainty regarding policy direction has increased following the establishment of a new government led by Sanae Takaichi, a supporter of Abenomics. However, Goldman Sachs remains cautiously optimistic about the Bank of Japan's ability to raise interest rates and its independence, based on four key reasons, including significant improvements in Japan's economy and price conditions compared to when Abenomics was launched in 2012. At present, it appears that Japan has almost no need to implement large-scale monetary easing policies similar to Abenomics.