Crypto Fear&Greek Index drops to 11, market in extreme fear
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The Crypto Fear&Greek Index has dropped from 16 yesterday to 11, with current market sentiment dominated by extreme fear. （Cointelegraph）
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The Crypto Fear&Greek Index has dropped from 16 yesterday to 11, with current market sentiment dominated by extreme fear. （Cointelegraph）
Click on the link to enter the meeting: https://meeting.tencent.com/dm/QPTIukg49bUO From 3088 to 2892, ETH hit its largest single day drop in December! Why did the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut trigger a liquidity panic, and why did the positive news of Fusaka upgrade fail? Tonight at 8 o'clock, the live broadcast room hits the core: precise support resistance+long short strategy+policy interpretation+continuous microphone exchange, taking you to seize opportunities for certainty in the sharp decline. Deep analysis of the four dimensions (core logic behind the sharp decline) 1. Fundamentals: The game between upgrading benefits and market sentiment Fusaka Upgrades Hardcore Support: The PeerDAS technology activated on December 4th has further reduced L2 transaction costs by 40% -60%, increased Blob capacity by 8 times, and continued to reach new highs in L2 daily activities such as Arbitrum. At the technical level, ETH fundamentals remain unchanged; Optimization of supply and demand pattern: 35.6 million ETH has been pledged (accounting for 29.4% of the total supply), and the circulation market continues to tighten. Giant Whale Wallet (10000-100000 pieces) increased its holdings by 23000 pieces in 24 hours against the trend, and there are obvious signs of institutional bargain hunting layout; Short term bearish: Leveraged stampede: Open futures contracts fell from $17 billion to $15.2 billion, with $420 million long positions liquidated within 24 hours, exacerbating price volatility. 2. Policy aspect: The dual impact of the Federal Reserve and regulation The "double-edged sword" of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut: the third rate cut this year to 3.5% -3.75%, but Powell's hawkish signal of "only one rate cut in 2026" has shifted market expectations from a "loose cycle" to "slow easing", causing the liquidity premium of risk assets to fall, leading ETH to follow BTC's decline; Long term regulatory benefits: The CFTC has approved ETH as a collateral for derivatives and officially incorporated it into the mainstream financial regulatory system, clearing obstacles for institutional funds to enter the market. Coinbase predicts that this will activate demand in the billions; EU MiCA landing: Clarify the compliance status of ETH, standardize custody and investment products, and reduce market risk premiums in the long run. 3. News aspect: Liquidity panic and capital rotation - Liquidity tightening: the size of the Federal Reserve's treasury bond bond purchase plan is only 40 billion dollars, far below market expectations, the liquidity of cryptocurrency market is diverted, and Altcoin has become a disaster area for capital flight; Institutional trend differentiation: Ethereum ETF saw a net inflow of $140 million in a single week, but retail investors in the spot market had an outflow of $129 million, forming a pattern of "institutional bottom fishing and retail investors cutting meat"; BTC drag effect: Bitcoin falling below the 90000 mark triggered market panic, causing funds to flow back to BTC for safe haven from Altcoins such as ETH, resulting in ETH falling more than BTC. 4. Technical aspect: Key support and rebound signals Daily level: 2892 accurately touches the MA60 moving average support, RSI is close to oversold range (30), historical data shows that ETH has a 72% probability of rebounding near the MA60 moving average; -4-hour level: The appearance of a "hammer line" K-line pattern, with increased trading volume (trading volume reaching nearly 1.8 times the 3-day average during a sharp decline), belongs to the "stabilization signal after panic selling"; - Tool reference: Bollinger Bands below 2880 form strong support, if it falls below, it opens up downward space; MACD is about to form a golden cross, and rebound momentum is accumulating. Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's personal opinion and is intended to assist investors in understanding information related to the capital market. It does not constitute any investment advice and does not represent the position or viewpoint of AiCoin. The market is risky and investments should be made with caution.
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