[Report Indicates Crypto Market Appears Calm but Hides Volatility; Bitcoin and Ethereum May See Trend Changes in January]
The 10x Research weekly market report highlights that the crypto market has entered the new year amidst a cycle of low activity, but signals from the derivatives market suggest different trends. Despite declining trading volume and participation, funding rates are gradually rising, leverage remains high, and the dissonance between ETF fund flows, stablecoin trading activity, and futures positions has led to a market that appears calm on the surface but hides underlying volatility. Adjustments in the options market may indicate a shift in market structure rather than a continuation of existing trends. Technical indicators are nearing critical points, and minor fluctuations could trigger asset allocation adjustments.
Bitcoin trading volume has dropped by 30%, with the downward trend persisting, though it may turn bullish in January. Bitcoin's RSI stands at 43%, and the stochastic indicator is at 30%, with 4.5% remaining before reaching the trend change trigger point. The short-term key price level is $88,421, while the major key price level is $98,759. Ethereum's RSI is at 44%, and the stochastic indicator is at 23%, with 5% remaining before reaching the trend change trigger point. The short-term key price level is $2,991, while the major key price level is $3,363.
Bitcoin's 30-day realized volatility is 38.2%, below the 30-day average of 45%; Ethereum's 30-day realized volatility is 61.2%, below the 30-day average of 66.6%.