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[Probability of the Fed Maintaining Rates Unchanged in January Reaches 88.4% Ahead of Non-Farm Payroll Data Release] According to CME 'FedWatch' data, ahead of the release of non-farm payroll data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in January is 11.6%, while the probability of maintaining rates unchanged is 88.4%. By March, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 35.8%, the probability of maintaining rates unchanged is 60.6%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 3.7%.