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In May, the financial market will witness two major disruptive events that will directly dominate the trend of the cryptocurrency market and become the core trigger for market reversal! One is the visit of the US President to China on May 14th, and the other is the change of Federal Reserve Chairman on May 15th, with Powell officially stepping down and Kevin Walsh taking office. The two major events are highly time intensive, and the policy direction and financial landscape will undergo significant adjustments. Global capital has already laid out in advance, and the cryptocurrency industry is entering the ultimate choice stage!
After a sustained period of volatility on Saturday, the bulls set sail again on Sunday morning, with the big pie directly rising near the 79100 line, and the ether rising around 2340. I made it very clear yesterday about the short-term market. If the short-term market returns to around 78000, it will be given an additional 1000 points, while if the Ethereum returns to 2280, it will be given an additional 60 points. The pace and expectations are basically consistent. After confirming the support for the pullback on Thursday, it rebounded all the way and continued to rebound over the weekend, regaining its lost ground again. This means that the support below is more obvious, clearly not a downward trend, but a correction in the form of a pullback.
Reviewing historical trends, the impact of major policy events on the cryptocurrency market is highly regular! On the eve of Trump's visit to China in 2017, Bitcoin surged by over 50% unilaterally due to favorable policy expectations, and market sentiment was extremely fervent; After the landing of the visit to China incident, all the good news came out and funds fled frantically, leading to a sharp decline in the market. At the same time, mainstream financial markets such as the US stock market and A-shares have repeatedly shown the classic trend of "early speculation of expectations and realization of profits upon event landing" before major diplomatic and policy events. This cryptocurrency market trend is likely to replicate this pattern, and early prediction is necessary to seize the opportunity
From a technical perspective, market liquidity has weakened, and the short-term upward momentum of mainstream currencies in the cryptocurrency industry has completely dried up! The BTC daily MACD and RSI indicators simultaneously form a dead cross, and the 3-day MACD is facing zero axis watershed suppression, with clear bearish signals; The key range of resistance is 78500. Long positions have repeatedly drawn back but cannot break through, and if they do not break through for a long time, they will inevitably fall. The short-term market tends to decline, and blindly chasing multiple positions can easily lead to losses. Pay attention to short positions between 73500-74500!
Combining event driven, historical patterns, and technical signals, the non farm payroll data before and after time node 8 shows a downward trend. Short orders should focus on key resistance levels near the 78500-79300 range, and be short when high. The first target range for profit taking is the 73500-74500 range, which is a turning point. If there is rebound resistance before and after the release of CPI data on the 12th, or if it does not exceed 80000 yuan in the 78500-79000 range, it can be short. Short term long positions should not be greedy, and stop losses must be taken into account. In special circumstances, on the day of the President's visit to China on May 14th, historical patterns should be reviewed to avoid risks and uncertain factors. Market risks should be closely monitored!
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Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's personal opinion and is intended to assist investors in understanding information related to the capital market. It does not constitute any investment advice and does not represent the position or viewpoint of AiCoin. The market is risky and investments should be made with caution.