Strong ETF inflows and rising leverage are lifting prices, yet CryptoQuant data shows weak spot demand and Polymarket odds put just a 23% chance on $90,000 this month.
What to know : Bitcoin’s climb back toward $80,000 is being driven largely by inflows into U.S. spot ETFs and leveraged long positions rather than broad-based spot buying. On-chain data show April’s rally was powered almost entirely by perpetual futures demand while spot demand contracted, a pattern historically linked to fragile, easily reversed gains. Prediction markets see a better-than-even chance of a modest move to $85,000 but low odds of a break to $90,000, underscoring that the advance lacks strong conviction and is vulnerable to any slowdown in inflows or shift in positioning.
