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1、 Key price dynamics
Intraday trend: It opened at 82210 in the morning session, reached a high of 82380 and quickly fell back, with a low of 80462.97. As of now, it is trading near 81676, with a range of 2.33%.
Key positions:
Strong support level 80500: The 14 day rebound trend line since April 30th and the long short boundary point may accelerate the retreat to 79000 if lost.
The resistance range of 82000-82500: The high of $82496 on May 6th constitutes psychological pressure, and a breakthrough in volume is needed to confirm a trend reversal.
【 2. Ethereum (ETH) 】
Intraday trend: After opening at 2371.26, it fluctuated downwards, with a minimum test of 2304, now reporting at $2332.81, a decrease of 1.62% in 24 hours, and slightly higher volatility than Bitcoin.
Key positions:
Core support 2300: If it falls below, it will test the intensive trading area in the early stage of 2280, and the loss of this position may trigger a chain liquidation of leveraged long positions.
Resistance level of $2350: Only after breaking through can the upward space be opened, otherwise it will remain in the range of 2280-2350 oscillation.
2、 Market driven factors
【 1. Short term catalyst 】
US April CPI data: to be released at 20:30 today. If inflation data exceeds expectations (such as core CPI>0.3% month on month), it may strengthen the Federal Reserve's "higher for longer" stance and negatively impact risk assets; On the contrary, if the temperature drops, it will boost the rebound of cryptocurrency.
Institutional Position Dynamics:
Strategy increased its holdings of 535 BTC at an average price of $80340 from May 4th to 10th, with a total holding cost of $75540. The current price is still in a floating profit state.
Bitmine's Ethereum holdings have increased to 5.21 million (accounting for 4.31% of the total supply), with over 84% pledged and an annualized return of approximately $319 million, providing bottom support logic.
【 2. Technical signal 】
Differentiation of long and short emotions:
The Bitcoin Fear Greed Index has rebounded to 48 (neutral), a significant improvement from 15 (extreme fear) a month ago, but has not yet entered the greed zone.
Within 24 hours, the entire network experienced a stock explosion of 380 million yuan, with 65.5% of the short positions being concentrated and harvested, indicating a release of short-term selling pressure.
Key points of quantity and energy:
Bitcoin requires a daily trading volume of over 50 billion (currently around 40.6 billion) to confirm the validity of the breakthrough, otherwise it is prone to obstacles near 82500.
Ethereum RSI is anchored at a neutral threshold of 50, and if it breaks through 55, it needs to be accompanied by increased volume to shake off the oscillation.
3、 Operational suggestions
1. Bitcoin
Long position strategy: If you hold onto the support of 80500, you can take a light position and try long, with a target of 82000 and a stop loss of 79800.
Short position strategy: If the price falls below 80400 and does not recover within 30 minutes, the short position target is 79000. Beware of the risk of sudden changes in CPI data in the evening.
2. Ethereum
Key observation point: gains and losses at the 2300 integer level. If the closing price remains stable for 2 consecutive hours, the bulls have an advantage.
Band opportunities: The 2280-2300 range can be deployed in batches, with a medium to long term focus on the Glamsterdam upgrade catalyst in June.
4、 Risk Warning
1. CPI data volatility risk: The expected month on month CPI for April in the United States is+0.3%. If the actual value is greater than 0.4%, it may trigger a rapid correction of $500-1000.
2. Liquidity trap: The current Bitcoin perpetual contract funding rate has turned negative, and the annualized cost of short positions is about 12%. If the price remains sideways for too long or triggers a passive liquidation trend.
3. Ethereum ecosystem differentiation: Recently, altcoins such as Solana and XRP have led the way in gains (reaching a 14 day high), and fund diversion may suppress ETH's short-term performance.
What will the market do next? Professor Pang Tong, who has ten years of theoretical and practical trading experience in the cryptocurrency industry, will provide a detailed breakdown for everyone. Welcome to the live broadcast room to check in!
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Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's personal opinion and is intended to assist investors in understanding information related to the capital market. It does not constitute any investment advice and does not represent the position or viewpoint of AiCoin. The market is risky and investments should be made with caution.
