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Economists have raised their expectations for US inflation due to the energy price shock caused by the Iran War, and expect core PCE to rise higher than previously predicted, with inflation indicators remaining above 3% at the end of the year. Opinions differ on whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in December, as previously predicted for October. Luke Tilly, Chief Economist of Wilmington Trust Corp, stated that the surge in energy prices may affect consumer spending. A survey shows that consumer spending and GDP in the United States have grown by about 2% this year, and the probability of a recession in the next 12 months has dropped to 25%. The employment growth forecast has been slightly raised, and the unemployment rate may reach 4.5% in the third quarter.