Three Kingdoms College Live: Interest Rate Expectations Rise, Has the Bull Market Ended?

Click on the link to enter the meeting: https://meeting.tencent.com/p/6839100013 1. Core Price Dynamics 1. Real time market trends (as of early trading on May 26th) Bitcoin (BTC): quoted at around $77275, slightly up 0.39% in 24 hours, with a intraday fluctuation range of $76108-77543, failing to effectively stabilize above $77000. Ethereum (ETH): quoted at around $2130, up 1.91% in 24 hours, with a intraday fluctuation range of $2092-2142, still constrained by the 50/100 day moving average. 2. Key position verification BTC： Strong support level of $76000 (the starting point of multiple recent rebounds), if breached, will drop to $74500 (the low point on May 23); The key resistance is $78000 (psychological barrier), which needs to be broken through in large quantities to reverse short-term weakness. ETH： Core support of $2100 (intraday long short watershed), if it falls below, it may accelerate towards $2000; The upper resistance is between 2170-2180 US dollars (4-hour Bollinger Bands), and breaking through requires amplification of volume. 2. Key Technical Signals 1. Short term structural weakness remains unchanged BTC： The daily level is still in the downward channel, with bearish moving averages and a shortened but not strong MACD green bar, indicating a lack of sustained volume to support the rebound. The cumulative trading volume difference of the spot order book has been negative for 9 consecutive days, reflecting the dominance of the seller's strength. Any rebound is easily seen as a technical repair rather than a trend reversal. ETH： The price continues to run below the 50/100 day moving average, with the MACD dead cross downward. Although the 4-hour chart shows a bottom divergence, the rebound momentum is weak. The open interest contract volume decreased by 12%, indicating that the market risk appetite is still low, and the high concentration of long positions can easily trigger stampede. 2. Quantity and market sentiment The pressure of liquidation across the internet has eased but not yet lifted: In the past 24 hours, the cryptocurrency market has experienced a liquidation of $214 million, with 64% of orders being long, indicating that short positions are still active. The Fear and Greed Index is 30 (fear range), although it has slightly rebounded from the previous day's 25, market sentiment has not yet warmed up, and there is a high risk of short-term price chasing. 3. Core factors affecting intraday trends 1. Macro and policy aspects The hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve continues: CPI rose 3.8% year-on-year in April, and the market expects no interest rate cuts throughout 2026, with high interest rates suppressing the valuation of risk assets. The progress of the US Iran peace talks is divided: although there are signals of easing navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, Iran denies the details of the agreement, and the geopolitical risk premium has not completely subsided. 2. Capital flow and market structure The inflow of BTC ETF funds has slowed down: In early May, a single day withdrawal of 467 million US dollars was made, but the intensity of inflows has weakened recently and there is a lack of incremental funds to drive breakthroughs. The fundamentals of the ETH network are robust: the monthly transaction volume exceeds 70 million (a historical high), and the median transaction fee has dropped to $0.00554, but the short-term price and on chain activity have not yet formed a positive correlation. 4. Suggestions for intraday operational strategies 1. Overall Approach Sell high and buy low within the oscillation range to avoid one-sided bets. BTC follows $76000-78000, ETH follows $2100-2180. Strictly control positions, do not chase short positions during sharp drops, and do not chase long positions during sharp rises, waiting for confirmation signals of key level breakthroughs. 2. Specific reference BTC： Step back at $76000-76500 to take a light long position, stop loss below $75500, and target $77500-78000; Rebound to $77800-78000 under pressure, short position possible, stop loss above $78500, target $77000. ETH： The stable support zone of $2100-2110 can be laid out in batches, with a stop loss of $2080 and a target of $2150-2170; If you encounter resistance in the $2170-2180 resistance zone, you can go short with a stop loss of $2200 and a target of $2120. What will the market do next? Professor Pang Tong, who has ten years of theoretical and practical trading experience in the cryptocurrency industry, will provide a detailed breakdown for everyone. Welcome to the live broadcast room to check in! Join the Three Kingdoms College Exchange Group to receive more services: 1. Real time troubleshooting (online one-on-one question answering and sorting) 2. Professional technical analysis and theoretical learning 3. Construction and improvement of trading system 4. Live streaming courses every day, contract termination, real-time order making, to help you successfully land! Official QQ group: 579358784 Tencent Meeting ID: 6839100013 Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's personal opinion and is intended to assist investors in understanding information related to the capital market. It does not constitute any investment advice and does not represent the position or viewpoint of AiCoin. The market is risky and investments should be made with caution.