According to CME's "Federal Reserve Watch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 99.9%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 0.1%; The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 91.4%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points is 8.5%.
AI interpretation: The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in June is extremely high, indicating strong market expectations for the current interest rate policy. This stability reflects the cautious attitude of the Federal Reserve when facing economic data, indicating that it will continue to pay attention to the dynamics of economic growth and inflation in its decision-making. The market's relatively low expectations for future interest rate hikes further consolidate concerns about an economic slowdown, which may lead investors to be more cautious about risky assets.
