CME data: Expectations of interest rate cuts within the year fade, probability of rate hikes increases

According to CME Federal Reserve observation data, the expectation of interest rate cuts within the year has basically subsided, and the possibility of a 75 basis point interest rate hike has emerged. By the end of 2026, the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged is 40.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 0.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point and 50 basis point rate hike are 41.6% and 14.6%, respectively, and the probability of a cumulative 75 basis point rate hike is 0.1%. The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points at its June meeting is 1.7%.