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Hello everyone, I am Cannon Teacher. The CPI data was released last night and will be live streamed at 10 pm tonight. We will directly break down the market structure based on the data.
A lower than expected core CPI is a "good" signal, indicating that the surge in energy prices has not yet been fully transmitted to core inflation. But the fact that the overall CPI "broke 4" is still true,
This is the largest year-on-year increase since April 2023. Before the Federal Reserve's June 17th interest rate meeting, the signal given in this report was that inflation is resilient but not out of control. The market's extreme bets on interest rate hikes have cooled down.
Analysis of BTC K-line Structure
·Daily level: Confirmed support for 60800 for two consecutive days, currently challenging the range of 63000-64000
·4-hour level: Price exceeds MA25 suppression, currently testing MA50 (approximately 63800-64000 area)
·Key positions: Upper pressure 64000-64500 (high rebound area in the early stage), lower support 61800-62500 (retracement area after breakthrough)
Market qualitative analysis: The CPI data has not triggered extreme fluctuations, and currently belongs to a technical recovery rebound after the "bearish trend" has been exhausted. Whether it can evolve into a trend reversal depends on whether it can stabilize above 64000 with increased volume this week.
ETH rose from around 1650 to above 1730 yesterday and is currently consolidating in the 1700-1720 range.
Core focus: Open interest contracts reach a historic high
The open interest amount of Ethereum perpetual contracts on Binance (calculated by ETH) has reached nearly 3.7 million ETH, setting a new historical high.
What does this data mean
Firstly, the current price of ETH has fallen by about 67% from its historical high and is in an extremely oversold area, but there are still a large number of traders increasing their risk exposure in the derivatives market.
Secondly, the weekly average of the active buyer/seller ratio has increased from 0.95 to 1.0, indicating that after months of seller dominance, capital flows are rebalancing and some investors are starting to rebuild long positions.
Tonight's live broadcast highlights three key points
Firstly, what fundamental changes have occurred in the K-line structure of BTC and ETH after the implementation of CPI? Can the two key pressure levels of 64000 and 1740 be broken through?
Secondly, Ethereum's open interest contracts hit a historic high - is this a sign of bullish momentum or a precursor to a "long short double kill"? What is the liquidation pressure if the leveraged position of 3.7 million ETH experiences a reverse fluctuation?
Thirdly, the trading pace for the following week: How will we plan for the three trading days after CPI? Which positions are the profit taking points for batches and which positions are the confirmation points for adding inventory?
See you at 10 o'clock, combined with real-time data from the panel, dismantle the structure thoroughly.
Tencent Meeting: 910-6946-452
Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's personal opinion and is intended to assist investors in understanding information related to the capital market. It does not constitute any investment advice and does not represent the position or viewpoint of AiCoin. The market is risky and investments should be made with caution.
