I still stick to my prediction for the past two days: there is an 80% chance that Bitcoin's rebound peak after breaking 60000 will be at 64500! 1) BTC's bears have accumulated a large sell wall between 64500-65000; To cross these selling walls, bulls need to have a large volume of buying volume; 2) The bullish momentum at the four hour and daily levels is weak, and there is not much momentum or confidence for the bulls to break through. Even if the US Iran agreement is implemented to stimulate, it will be of no use after the pulse; 3) ETF institutions had a net inflow of $85M yesterday, with consecutive days of net outflows, finally symbolically flowing in yesterday; Over the past month, the cumulative net outflow of ETFs has been about $5.8 billion, and the daily inflow of $85.85 million is still insufficient compared to the previous outflow scale. This is a 'slowdown in outflow+first positive turn', not a 'trend reversal'. Institutions are retreating, while individual investors are taking over; 4) On chain demand: approaching the valuation bottom area, but not yet confirmed. Realized price indicator: The current price of Bitcoin is only about 9% higher than the "realized price". In history, near the low points of major bear markets, the current price is usually close to the realized price. The current level is seen by some analysts as entering a 'valuation sensitive zone'. Proportion of loss making supply: Currently, over half of the circulating supply is in a floating loss state. This situation has also occurred near the bottom of the market in the past, as positions that are still profitable and may continue to sell will significantly decrease. But he also reminded that the market may still experience another round of downturn before a sustained recovery occurs. The market is approaching the candidate area for valuation bottom, but 'bottom confirmed' is still too early. Whether ETF funds can continue to flow in and whether institutional demand can recover remains a key observation point in the next stage. 5) Countdown to Bank of Japan's interest rate hike (June 15-16) - Mid term core bearish. The Bank of Japan will hold an interest rate decision on June 15-16, and the market widely expects to raise the benchmark interest rate from 0.75% to 1%, the highest level in nearly 30 years since 1995. The closing mechanism of yen arbitrage trading: Japan's long-term ultra-low interest rates have given rise to a massive yen carry trade - investors borrow cheap yen to invest in high-yield assets worldwide, including cryptocurrencies. Raising interest rates has pushed up the cost of yen financing, forcing leveraged investors to close their positions and tightening global liquidity. Historical pattern verification: Since the start of Japan's interest rate hike cycle in 2024, each hike has led to a significant decline in Bitcoin: March 2024 interest rate hike: Bitcoin falls by about 23% July 2024 interest rate hike: Bitcoin falls by about 25-30% January 2025 interest rate hike: Bitcoin falls by approximately 31% December 2025 interest rate hike: Bitcoin falls by over 25% This is currently the biggest unrealized mid-term negative. Whether the US Iran agreement is signed or not, and whether ETFs become regular or not, the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike is a deterministic event. The time window is only 2-3 days left, and the market focus is shifting from geopolitical news to liquidity tightening. There is no expectation for the weekend, and there is an 80% chance that the US Iran ceasefire agreement will not be implemented. It is purely Trump's wishful thinking and self talk. Rest well on the weekend and wait for the sharp fluctuations in Bitcoin prices next week.