Huatai Securities pointed out that the September non farm payroll report fell short of expectations, and the urgency of the Federal Reserve's short-term consecutive interest rate hikes has decreased. Based on a 3-month average, the new non farm payroll was 51000, indicating a stable but tight job market. The non farm payroll weakened in September, coupled with a decrease in wage growth, making it difficult for household consumption to continue its strong performance in August. Forward looking indicator NFIB recruitment willingness shows that non farm payrolls may still be weak in October, and Huatai Securities believes that it is difficult for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates continuously in October. Under the benchmark scenario, it is expected to raise interest rates again in December. (Source: Jin Shi)
AI interpretation: The weakening of non farm employment data directly weakens the necessity of the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes in the short term. The cooling of the job market and the slowdown in wage growth have jointly suppressed residents' consumption potential, fundamentally changing the expected path of inflation rebound. The Federal Reserve has entered a substantive wait-and-see phase in the current monetary policy cycle. This trend clearly points to a shift in interest rate policy, and the market's pricing of the pace of interest rate hikes has undergone fundamental adjustments.
