The latest Fed dot plot shows a hawkish stance (some officials expect rate hikes in 2026, causing a drop). The current upward channel from the bottom is just a small-scale rebound correction within the larger downtrend and does not constitute a trend reversal. On the 12-hour and daily chart levels, this is merely a short-term bottom rebound, lacking sufficient bottom-building structure to support a bullish reversal. The main trend remains bearish. This round of upward movement has formed a standard ascending channel, with prices touching the upper edge of the channel twice. The 6.7-6.6 range is a strong resistance zone at the daily Bollinger mid-band. A rebound to this area still calls for short positions, targeting below 63,000. Long positions can be set up around 62,000-60,000 (previous key low, psychological threshold + long-term holder buy zone). The short-term market is choppy and chaotic; however, regardless of the fluctuations, it will ultimately test the previous lows again. There is no foundation for a significant and sustained rebound.
