New buyers hold a total of 3.837 million $BTC, which sounds like a lot, but in reality, this is a cumulative figure. It represents the total amount of $BTC that has been accumulated and retained by all new addresses after their first purchase. This includes both recently purchased $BTC and those bought a long time ago and never moved since. In the last cycle, this figure dropped to a low of 2.56 million, while in this cycle, the lowest point was 3.35 million. The rising floor indicates that over time, more and more $BTC purchased for the first time are being stored in wallets and not moved. However, if you want to understand the recent demand trends, you need to look at another metric: the short-term holder supply weight (as shown in the chart below). This is the most direct reflection of short-term activity on the blockchain. Recent trading behaviors—short-term speculation, arbitrage, profit-taking, panic selling, etc.—almost always show up in this metric first. From the chart, you can see that only when the blue waveform rises significantly (indicating high short-term activity and strong new demand entering the market) does it signal the typical start of a bull market. I’ve highlighted areas in light yellow on the chart that show historical and current levels of activity. It’s fair to say that the current level of new capital activity is dismal—practically “dead,” with almost no interest at all. That’s why I say demand is weak right now. But even weak demand can eventually ‘pile up into a mountain’ and ‘gather into a fur coat.’