Formula: Cost + Odds + Risk + Opportunity + Strategy A recent example is how I applied this to the much-criticized BP. Even though I gave up on farming this project early on (long story there), it didn’t stop me from trading it. Despite the project team’s chaotic operations, based on my calculations, they made money. After the token launch, the FDV stayed between 1.2–1.5 long-term, with a circulating supply of about 25%, roughly 30–40 million. From the perspective of cost, odds, and risk, this was definitely alpha. Will play again next time!