Polymarket shows a 48% probability of signing the CLARITY Act in 2026

BitUnix analysts pointed out that the global market focus has shifted from geopolitics to Federal Reserve policies. Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh has pushed for the weakening of forward guidance and dot matrix mechanisms, leading to increased policy uncertainty, global capital flowing back into the US dollar system, rising US bond yields, and expectations of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates continue to suppress cryptocurrency market valuations.

According to Decrypt, CryptoQuant data shows that Bitcoin network activity has reached its highest level since 2024, only 7% lower than the historical peak in September 2024. The proportion of transactions less than 0.01 BTC and less than 0.001 BTC has increased from 44% in 2023 to approximately 80%, which CryptoQuant attributes to protocol driven activity, i.e. high trading volume but low single transaction value.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost pointed out that Bitcoin has fallen more than 28% since May, testing the $60000 mark again, and the Fear and Greed Index has fallen below 10. Short term holders reacted strongly during the adjustment, transferring over 80000 BTC to Binance within 7 days, equivalent to approximately $5 billion in selling pressure, second only to the historical record of over 100000 BTC in February. Darkfost stated that short-term holders are highly sensitive to market fluctuations and are prone to making emotional decisions.

Standard Chartered believes that the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve are too hawkish, and expects the Fed to maintain interest rates unchanged for the year and cut interest rates in the second quarter of next year. The second half market outlook report released by Standard Chartered shows that the US economy performed better than expected, and the temporary agreement reached between the US and Iran pushed overall inflation to peak in the second quarter. The current situation is favorable for interest rates in emerging markets such as India. Standard Chartered tends to invest through stocks, believing that India's future environment will improve and the situation will tend to stabilize.

According to Onchain Lens monitoring, the TechnoRevenant associated wallet sold 492 XAUTs at an average price of $4179, totaling $2.05 million, and purchased 3457 BNBs at an average price of $595.