Main password: US GDP growth forecast raised, main player trades $100 million bet on this direction

According to The Block, it is predicted that the market platform Polymarket will have a turnover of over 2 billion US dollars in the first 10 days of the Soccer category after the start of the World Cup, an increase of about 300% compared to the previous 10 days. The daily turnover of this category will increase from 53 million US dollars to about 220 million US dollars. During the same period, the compliance prediction platform Kalshi aggregated the size of open contracts, which exceeded 1.16 billion US dollars for the first time last week, an increase of about 350% since the beginning of the year. The overall open interest size of Polymarket remained relatively stable during the World Cup period, while Kalshi is regulated by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission and supports direct USD deposits, attracting US institutions and high net worth users to hold long-term positions. Its positioning is to benchmark compliant sports betting platforms such as DraftKings and FanDuel.

According to CCTV News, the International Maritime Organization has released operational guidelines for the evacuation plan in the Strait of Hormuz, coordinating the phased evacuation of over 11000 crew members. The International Maritime Organization requires ships awaiting evacuation to maintain their current position and wait for notification. The UK Maritime Trade Action Office and the French led Indian Ocean Maritime Information Centre are responsible for contacting ships and notifying them to proceed to designated waiting areas. Ships can choose to depart from the Strait of Hormuz via the northern route through Iranian waters or the southern route through coordinated waters between Oman and the United States.

ECB Executive Director Schnabel stated that interest rate hikes are still necessary to achieve the 2% inflation target.

Bitcoin has fallen below the lowest range on the Bitcoin rainbow chart, marking the second time in history that it has entered the purple zone. Some holders compare the current situation to the bottom of the cycle formed by Bitcoin falling to around $15000 in 2022. XYO co-founder Markus Levin stated that the price has fallen below the range maintained for over a decade for the first time, and the rainbow chart is no longer valid. Ethra COO Emad Shahin stated that Rainbow Chart is an emotional indicator rather than a predictive tool. GoMining CEO Mark Zalan stated that the region represents extreme panic and underestimation, often followed by repairs. Lee stated that the current low position of Bitcoin on the rainbow chart indicates a weakening market sentiment. If risk appetite worsens, Bitcoin still cannot rule out the possibility of falling towards the low range of $50000.

Grayscale research director Zach Pandl stated that Bitcoin's valuation is relatively low, but investors still need to pay attention to two potential risks. （Cointelegraph）