The real big event this week isn’t the PCE, but the U.S. June Non-Farm Payrolls data set to be released Thursday night at 8:30 PM. Let’s look at last month first—markets originally expected May’s non-farm payrolls to increase by just 85K, but the actual figure came in at 172K, with the previous value revised up from 115K to 179K. The job market turned out stronger than expected, reminding everyone that the U.S. economy hasn’t cooled significantly, and the Fed naturally has no urgent reason to cut rates. After the data release, the dollar strengthened, U.S. Treasury yields rose, and risk assets like gold and $BTC saw varying degrees of adjustment. This time, the market expects June’s payroll increase to be 114K, noticeably lower than last month’s 172K. Right now, the market isn’t trading on *when* rate cuts will happen, but rather on *how long* high interest rates can be sustained. If the non-farm payrolls beat expectations again, it would signal that U.S. employment remains strong, high rates could persist longer, liquidity would stay tight, and high-valuation assets would remain under pressure. Only when the job market truly starts to cool will the market raise its expectations for rate cuts again. This is why a single non-farm payroll report can influence the dollar, gold, U.S. stocks, and even $BTC’s trajectory in the coming period.