The United States will release its June non farm payroll report on July 2nd at 20:30 (UTC+8). The market expects a new non farm employment of 110000 in June, lower than the 172000 in May; The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.3%, and the average hourly wage is expected to increase by 0.3% month on month. This data will affect the expectations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy. If the employment data is stronger than expected, the market may lower its expectation of interest rate cuts and re consider the possibility of interest rate hikes; If the data is significantly weak, it may boost expectations of interest rate cuts. The market is simultaneously concerned about the volatility of the US dollar, US Treasury yields, and Japanese yen exchange rate.
AI interpretation: The significant slowdown in non farm employment growth expectations directly reflects the increasing pressure of supply-demand imbalance in the labor market. The high unemployment rate clearly reveals the declining trend of economic growth momentum. The stable performance of salary growth further weakens the potential risk of inflation rebound. This data will become a key anchor for the Federal Reserve to adjust its monetary policy and directly drive the market to reprice the path of interest rate cuts.
