The market is divided on the authenticity of US employment data, and the number of non farm payroll jobs added in June has become a key reference for the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike. If the number of new jobs added in June reaches or exceeds 150000, the Federal Reserve will consider raising interest rates; If the number is below 150000, the Federal Reserve is almost certain to keep interest rates unchanged. Other observation points include an expected unemployment rate of 4.3%, diversified recruitment industries, and an expected year-on-year salary growth rate of around 3.5%.
AI interpretation: Non farm employment data, as the core anchor point of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, directly determines the direction of interest rate path adjustment. The strong performance of the job market gives the Federal Reserve the confidence to maintain high interest rates, thereby suppressing the market's premature expectations for loose policies. The sustainability of salary growth further increases the risk of inflation stickiness, forcing the Federal Reserve to maintain a tough stance on tightening. This data is not only a measure of economic resilience, but also a key basis for locking in the Fed's subsequent interest rate hikes or maintaining high-level decisions.
