On July 3rd, QCP Capital stated that Bitcoin briefly fell below $58000 on Wednesday, but later returned to $60000 boosted by June non farm payroll data in the United States; Ethereum has returned above $1700, rebounding nearly 10% from its mid week low. The short-term implied volatility of the options market has fallen, and call options expiring in July have become the dominant trading option. The acceleration of wage growth, decline in unemployment rate, and strong consumption in the United States still leave room for the Federal Reserve to maintain a hawkish stance. BTC spot ETF recorded a net inflow of $224 million, but the US Treasury and US stock markets have not yet confirmed a comprehensive rebound in risk appetite, and the current stage is a temporary rebound in the cryptocurrency market.
AI interpretation: The strong performance of non farm employment data directly breaks the market's concerns about economic recession and provides short-term support for risk assets. The wage growth rate and unemployment rate data together form a solid foundation for the labor market, forcing the Federal Reserve to maintain a tight monetary policy stance. This strong employment performance weakens the urgency of interest rate cuts and limits the space for further rebound in the cryptocurrency market. The market is currently in a game of tightening macro liquidity, and in the short term, the high interest rate environment will continue to suppress the upward momentum of asset prices.
