“‘LTH hasn’t experienced widespread losses yet, LTH isn’t panicking enough, LTH-RP is at $49,000, and every bear market bottom has fallen below LTH-RP, so we’re not at the bottom yet...’ Do you often see conclusions being drawn like this? Checkmate, however, uses an explanation of the underlying logic to refute these flawed views that are purely based on rigid assumptions while ignoring changes in objective conditions. 1. A large amount of BTC from the Satoshi era and early days is permanently lost and will never be spent. As a result, the LTH cost is significantly dragged down by these coins, which are locked in with massive unrealized gains on paper but will never be realized. 2. Liveliness should be used as a correction. Liveliness measures the overall activity of coins. Adjusting the supply with it effectively removes dormant and lost coins from the denominator, resulting in the true LTH realized price (purple line: $77,853) shown in the chart. 3. Within the network’s overall liveliness, there are both highly active STH and old coins that have been dormant for years. The dormancy ratio of LTH is much higher than the network average. In reality, the denominator would be even smaller, and the result even larger; meaning the true “active” LTH average cost is actually higher than $77,853. 4. Checkmate cross-verified this with LTH-AVIV and LTH-SOPR, and the results matched. The two lines move in sync, indicating that spending behavior is representative of the active group. This is the expected outcome, which in turn proves that the liveliness adjustment is correct. So... If we only look at the unadjusted LTH-RP or LTH-MVRV, we might conclude that LTH still has significant unrealized gains and that the price is far from the LTH cost. But after adjustment, we see that active LTH are spending at a loss (capitulating), which is a typical characteristic of a market cycle bottom. Of course, we can still maintain the view that ‘the bottom hasn’t been reached yet,’ but we can’t base this on arguments like ‘the price hasn’t fallen below LTH-RP’ or ‘LTH hasn’t experienced widespread losses.’ The distortion caused by Lost Coins makes us underestimate the actual loss pressure and capitulation level of the current LTH group.”