[Bernstein Report Indicates AI Liquid Cooling Market to Double in 4 Years, High Commodity Risk for Cold Plates]
According to Trend Research, Bernstein's July 5 report highlights that cold plates are the only components of liquid cooling systems that directly contact chips, with a single GB200 NVL72 cabinet requiring 108 units. The cold plate market is estimated to reach $2 billion to $3 billion by 2026, and $6 billion to $7 billion under baseline scenarios by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 20% to 30% over four years. NVIDIA's Rubin architecture has explicitly adopted 100% liquid cooling, eliminating fans. Cold plates are replaced upon failure, with no repair services involved, leading to hardware gross margin compression. Bernstein predicts that cold plate designs will converge between 2028 and 2030, posing high commodity risks, and longer-term replacement possibilities with silicon-based microchannel etching technology.
Outperforming market targets: VRT target price $416, NVT target price $218, ETN target price $534, SBGSY target price $310, TT target price $550, JCI target price $176; CARR target price $75 aligns with the market.
