Wintermute: Bitcoin's rise is more in line with the characteristics of a 'relief rebound' rather than the start of a new bull market BlockBeats News: On July 7th, Wintermute released a market analysis stating that the latest non farm payroll data in the United States was significantly lower than market expectations. In addition, Walsh's speech was interpreted by the market as biased towards pigeons, driving a general rebound in global risk assets, with the cryptocurrency market performing the most outstandingly. Both Bitcoin and Ethereum have recently significantly outperformed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices. The current rise of Bitcoin is based on a more stable foundation, mainly driven by the continuous increase in holdings of whales, the flow of option funds to call options, and the improvement of on chain data. The net outflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs has also brought some boost to market sentiment. The cooling of the US job market has further lowered expectations for interest rate hikes within the year, while Walsh reiterated the 2% inflation target at the Sintra Forum but did not release a more hawkish signal, which was interpreted by investors as the Federal Reserve's policy stance tending towards moderation. In the cryptocurrency market, data from the Bitcoin chain shows that the Whale Wallet has accumulated over 270000 BTC holdings near the 200 week moving average, while funds in the options market have shifted from safe haven positions to call options with strike prices of $60000 to $70000. At the same time, the rise of Ethereum is more driven by institutional narratives, including the official launch of Ethereum Institutional and the continued advancement of institutional tokenization infrastructure. However, the Ethereum Foundation's recent layoffs of about 20%, budget cuts of about 40%, and previous outflows of ETH ETF funds still reflect some pressure on its fundamentals. This round of rise is more in line with the characteristics of a 'relief rebound' rather than the opening of a new long-term bull market. The improvement of the macro environment, the easing of the situation in the Middle East, the continuous deployment of institutions in Ethereum, and the low liquidity in the summer have jointly promoted market recovery. However, in terms of funds, the cumulative outflow of funds from Bitcoin spot ETFs within the year is still as high as about 2.73 billion US dollars. Until the ETF fund flow continues to improve and form a trend, the market should still view the current situation as an emotional recovery rather than a structural reversal, and remain cautious about the future. [Original link]