The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 74.9%, and the probability of keeping them unchanged in September is 35.7%

According to CME's "Federal Reserve Watch", the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 74.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 25.1%; The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until September is 35.7%, the probability of a cumulative increase of 25 basis points is 51.1%, and the probability of a cumulative increase of 50 basis points is 13.1%. AI interpretation: This data directly reflects the pricing logic of the market towards the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path. The probability of the current interest rate remaining unchanged dominates, clearly indicating that the market is cautious about policy shifts in the short term. The existence of interest rate hike expectations reveals that inflationary pressure remains the core factor constraining policy easing. This pricing structure reinforces the expectation that the high interest rate environment will last longer, directly suppressing the market's aggressive bets on recent interest rate cuts.