BTC breaks through 64K, the exam opens, but the funding side is still dragging its feet, returning to narrow range oscillation?

Brothers and sisters, BTC has hit back above 64000 again, from 61.8K low point to 64177, up 4.2% in the past week. But this position is the key resistance price since June. The door has opened, but has the funds kept up? Let's take a look at the data and analysis together. Let's first take a look at the core data and information The driving force behind the rebound is very clear. Trump said Iran has actively sought negotiations, oil prices have fallen from high levels, and geopolitical tensions have eased. The Nasdaq rose over 1% for the second consecutive day, while the semiconductor index rose over 3%. Technology stocks brought back risk sentiment, and BTC broke through 64K. But there is a big bug in the data: prices are rising while ETFs are running. The spot BTC ETF experienced a net outflow for the second consecutive day, with an additional $95.3 million on Thursday. The Fidelity FBTC outflow was $63.25 million, and the ARKB outflow was $39.93 million. The price deviates from the funding side, and institutions have not yet confirmed this rebound. Quantity and trading volume During the rebound to 64K, the trading volume moderately increased, but did not reach the explosive level. The trading volume has not significantly expanded, and the sustainability of the rebound still needs to be confirmed. Core conclusion: The rebound is substantial but not explosive, and the 64K exam room needs to confirm with a large volume. Not increasing quantity is just a game of stock, not incremental entry. Quantity price relationship and structural form 64180 is the 0.618 strong gravitational potential of 58000-68000 Fib, which happened to be touched today. This position has been repeatedly blocked since June, and whether it can stand firm or not determines whether the rebound can be upgraded. Stand up and increase volume → look up at 65-66K; fall back after obstruction → step back on 62-63K. Core conclusion: 64K is the current watershed. The door opened, but the funds didn't keep up. On chain data analysis Long term holders are still cutting meat. According to Glassnode data, the proportion of LTH losses has skyrocketed from 15% in February to 43%, reaching a peak of 280 million yuan in daily losses and the most severe since December 2022. These people send BTC to the exchange, becoming the biggest source of selling pressure. The good news is that short-term holders' selling pressure has reached a several month low, while buyer pressure is recovering, and chips are shifting from short-term holders to stronger buyers. Core conclusion: The surrender of LTH is still ongoing, and the bottom signal is accumulating but not cooling down. Glassnode said that the conditions for the 'deep value zone' are met, but the confirmation signal has not yet appeared. Vibration and Trend Determination Short term strong, 64K resistance is being tested, classified as a relief rebound rather than a trend reversal. The medium-term bearish structure has not changed: the price is still more than 12000 points away from the real market average price of 76600. The rebound is driven by geopolitical easing, and ETFs have not confirmed it, classified as a relief rebound. Final summary of core judgments Market characterization: In the short-term 64K resistance test, it is classified as a relief rebound; The medium-term bearish structure has not changed. Long Short Contradiction: Geopolitical easing+rebound of technology stocks (bullish) vs continuous outflow of ETFs+LTH still cutting meat (bearish). The deviation between price and funding is the key contradiction. Key observation: Can 64K effectively increase volume and stand firm? If standing, look at 65-66K. If obstructed, step back on 62-63K. Bitcoin BTC 3D Integrated Trading Analysis