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Macro Core: Countdown to Jackson Hole Annual Meeting (keynote speech by Walsh tomorrow evening at 22:00)
The theme of this year's conference is financial innovation, payments, and monetary policy. For the first time, the Federal Reserve will focus on discussing regulatory frameworks for stablecoins and encrypted digital assets, which will directly affect the medium and long-term policy expectations of the cryptocurrency industry.
2. Short term US bond yields have slightly increased, and the market has lowered the probability of a September interest rate cut. The marginal expectation of interest rate hikes has risen, suppressing the action force in cryptocurrency; After the PCE data is implemented, there will be no new positive news in the macro market, and the market is completely waiting for tomorrow's speech to set the tone.
3. Market game divergence: 45% of expected speeches are neutral, 32% are hawkish, and 19% are dovish. The tone of the speeches will directly determine whether this round of rebound will continue or peak temporarily
Macro expectations weaken, expectations of interest rate cuts cool down
The core PCE meets expectations but overall inflation is high. The market is re pricing and maintaining high interest rates for a longer period of time. The willingness of incremental funds to enter the market has decreased, and the market has entered a wait-and-see game stage.
Summary of Current Market Situation
BTC is currently fluctuating in the range of $78000-79500, while ETH remains above $2480, with a total cryptocurrency market value of $2.76 trillion; The market is in a cautious window period before Jackson Hole's speech, with intense long and short games and frequent occurrence of stop loss and price cuts.
Tomorrow's speech by the Federal Reserve Chairman is the only decisive variable. Prior to this, the market mainly relied on high-level volatility to digest gains, and leveraged contracts had extremely high risks and were not suitable for heavy position games.
Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's personal opinion and is intended to assist investors in understanding information related to the capital market. It does not constitute any investment advice and does not represent the position or viewpoint of AiCoin. The market is risky and investments should be made with caution.
